Everyone saw Donald Trump on the news- in the Oval Office at last week’s White House meeting with Ukraine’s leader. Unpredictable geopolitical developments, and actions (or not) by the US Administration could materially impact the wet trades. But uncertainty pervades.

Analysts at Gibsons, in looking at developments regarding the Ukraine, had posited, in a February 2025 report, that: “It remains heavily debated whether or not trade flows might return to ‘normal’ in the event of a peace deal”

Earlier this year, a flurry of excitement surrounding the Biden administration’s tightening of the sanctions noose around “Dark Fleet” vessels has led to a recent bump upward - certainly in the longer-term outlook for crude carrying VLCCs, if one year time charter hires are a valid indicator. In theory, anyway, there should be more cargo for vessels that were following the rules.

Further uncertainty is looming in the background with a Trump Administration campaign to exert “maximum pressure” against Iran, causing a shift in patterns for its oil exports.  And, in the Red Sea, will “safe passages” be possible? Against this uncertain backdrop, we simply don’t know. Analysts, who are following shipping shares, not surprisingly, have widely diverging views.

One bellwether equity- with a large proportion of institutional ownership, International Seaways (NYSE: INSW) has released its 2024 Q4 earnings in conjunction with an investor call. In their models for valuing the company, whose share price stands has stood well below its Net Asset Value, analysts at Stifel, led by Ben Nolan, have pegged its likely VLCC earnings at around $37,500 per day, slightly below actual levels achieved in 2024. For Suezmaxes, which attained around $39,100 per day in 2024, Stifel is looking at a base case of $33,600 per day. For INSW’s MR’s, comprising nearly half its fleet, the 2025 estimate of $19,800 per day is substantially below 2024’s $31,000 per day result.

Stifel, with a target price of $38 per share, has put a “Hold” on the stock.

Source: Fearnleys

Analysts at Deutsche Bank, led by Chris Robertson, are also projecting a softer market, and building lower hires into their models of 2025 results. In their recent report where they maintain a “Buy” recommendation but lower their share price target to $48 per share. they note that for the current quarter, with a report due three months out, in the Spring, INSW “has booked 80% of its open VLCC days at $32,300/day, 80% of its open Suezmax days at $28,800/day, and 67% of its open MR days at $22,800/day”.

One analyst with a positive view is Omar Nokta from Jefferies- who emphasizes INSW’s ability to generate cash.  He explained to investors, in a report with his “Buy” recommendation, and a target of $58 per share, he highlights that INSWs “Balance sheet [IS] in top shape, dividend payout likely to stay at 75%+: Seaways declared a dividend of $0.70/sh, ~78% of adjusted earnings. Since 2022, the payout has steadily increased from 50% and it aims to keep a payout ratio at a minimum of 75% going forward. The dividend remains the primary form of shareholder returns though buybacks are on the table with $50 million remaining in its buyback program.”

As we continue to voyage through uncertain times, INSW is now seeing the fruits of reducing debt, and refinancing existing loans, strategies employed at the market’s heights.

Soure: Seatrade Maritime